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Could We Slip Into Recession

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  • Could We Slip Into Recession

    Indianapolis and the nation likely will avoid a recession in 2008, in part because of Wednesday's interest rate cut, the Federal Reserve's second this year, economists say.

    And with soaring oil prices -- they set another record high Wednesday, topping $95 a barrel for crude -- slipping consumer confidence and falling home values from Miami to Los Angeles and Indianapolis, it's anybody's guess.

    Economists interviewed by The Indianapolis Star suspect the nation, including the Indianapolis area, will see an economic slowdown in early 2008. Truckers will haul less tonnage. Manufacturing orders will ebb. And banks will hold on tighter to their money, which could slow the economy.

    "There's a lot of people looking for jobs, but there aren't really that many here that pay more than $9 or $10 an hour," Miller said. "How can you live on that? There's no middle class left anymore. I see people really struggling. I'm struggling."

    It's nice when they drop rates, but quite frankly, I'm not sure it's a wise move right now. It just helps fuel inflationary pressures," Scolnik said. "We don't see strong growth for the economy. But we don't see a recession, either. It's a Goldilocks economy. Not too hot. Not too cold. Just muddling along."


  • #2
    Re: Could We Slip Into Recession

    We are in trouble no doubt. Imagine $4.00 a gallon gasoline or heating oil? No one can figure out how to secure our borders, resolve the problem of illegal aliens, jobs lost to outsourcing, the war in Iraq, or any of the other major issues facing our nation. Neither political party offers me any hope of change. We do the best we can to conserve and cutback waste, but costs keep rising anyway. Trades people provide necessary services we need but in my opinion a country cannot survive if it does not manufacture anything . Look at all the stuff we are importing, especially from China and most of it is still substandard. No real quality control. I've done auto mechanic work over the years and some of the parts from China are putting us at serious risk. Brake drums and rotors made from junk metal. We are in trouble on a number of fronts!

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    • #3
      Re: Could We Slip Into Recession

      I know around here the HVAC trade is/was slow the this year. Brevard County florida has had record forclosures, new construction is all but stoped....and cant toss a rock without seeing a for sale sign on a house...and SUV's....Property tax increases..insurance (home owners) has gone freaking nuts, toss in gas prices and such and its looking sad around here.....local paper had an artical about how casual dinning restruants were hurting....olive garden, BBQ places and such......people not eating out as much.. Even plumbing side of the shop is slower than a few years ago.

      I dont think it counts as a resession (I belive thats 2 querters of negative grown or something like that)....but it sure seems like one.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Could We Slip Into Recession

        The housing market slump has got to have hurt an awful lot of people. Even if you Pros think some of the house flippers are jerks, their mistakes open the door for Pros to come in and both save the day and make some money. Except for really wealthy people, I'll bet a lot of folks are putting off their house remodeling plans. The price of gas alone is also keeping people from vacationing and driving for pleasure. People use to drive for fun! My buddy has a home in NY and one in St. Peterburg Beach Florida. He said he didn't mind driving back and forth each year and he spent money on food, gas and lodging along the way. No more, now he will only fly because of the price of gas and it will probably get worse. How can this get turned around? I think we got to start with our borders, lock them up tight. I mean no one in or out illegally! Then do whatever it takes to find out who is in our country and if they want to stay and are not criminals, then make them legal and collect taxes. Who the hell is running our country anyway? They are taking every mention of religion out of our government and way of life, this country was founded on religion. How can any government agency issue a legal license to an illegal resident? Doesn't that contradict our immigration laws?

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Could We Slip Into Recession

          if they are here illeagely then there are already criminals so they need to be deported, and i dont care where they came from.
          9/11/01, never forget.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Could We Slip Into Recession

            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression


            read this and you tell me how far away we are from this happening again

            due to recent problems i fear i will have to go back to work and out step out of my retirement real soon, yes i work now but only part time becuse i need something to do.. not rubbing it in but you guys that have been around know i got very lucky 2 years ago. but i am no longer in the 7 figures anymore.
            9/11/01, never forget.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Could We Slip Into Recession

              Originally posted by oldslowchevy View Post
              http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression


              read this and you tell me how far away we are from this happening again

              due to recent problems i fear i will have to go back to work and out step out of my retirement real soon, yes i work now but only part time becuse i need something to do.. not rubbing it in but you guys that have been around know i got very lucky 2 years ago. but i am no longer in the 7 figures anymore.
              OSC, I'm not familiar with your situation but I'm retired myself and it's not getting any easier. My neck, shoulders and back are ruined from thirty years of pulling manhole covers and carrying an occassional telephone pole down a driveway in addition to all the other hard work. I did not want to retire but the offer was on the table and I just could not do the job anymore. The difference between The Great Depression and now is that foreign investors own a lot of the businesses on the stock market, they own a lot of commercial properties in the USA, I think they just about own Hawaii! So, it would be more than Americans who would suffer if we go under again. There won't be any shortage of corn, at least we still grow corn. How did things get so screwed up? Where have our legislators been all these years while the illegals grew to 20 or so million and all our jobs went to third world countries? Plenty of Americans worked hard in factories, they raised families and bought homes and cars. Their kids would have worked them factory jobs but those jobs are gone. I'd like to know who will be left to buy all the electronics, cars and trucks when we can't? Sure won't be the third world worker.

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              • #8
                Re: Could We Slip Into Recession

                I'm thinking I better head back to Dr. Phil's man camp after reading all this cuz I'z depressed


                Just be like me,


                Keep plumbing to the day you die; retirement isn't an option

                Get yourself in enough avenues of income that no matter what becomes of your surroundings, you can weather the tide

                Go quietly but carry a big wrench

                Never miss an episode of Montel Williams with Sylvia Brown;

                Burn as much garbage and fuel in your trucks because the guy with the biggest carbon footprint, wins! Name:  1a1889d3cb76ba3de123518d43e4f15c.gif
Views: 1
Size:  2.3 KB
                Northern Kentucky Plumbers Twitter Feed | Plumbing Videos

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                • #9
                  Re: Could We Slip Into Recession

                  ok let me try to break this down for you in the way that i see it anyways,

                  Maldistribution of wealth. By 1929, there were warning signals that the old supply-demand system was out of synch. A maldistribution of wealth in the US (and Europe) created a serious structural problem. In the US, for example, over 42% of the nation's wealth had fallen into 1% of the people's hands.

                  now think about this, most of our money goes to companys out side of the usa or to workers sending money to there country for there familys.


                  The economic effect was to throw consumption out of balance with production. This caused a serious problem because prosperity in an industrial economy is dependent on consumption as well as production. (The same was true in Germany, and to a lesser extent in Britain and France.)

                  this means we are making way to much stuff that is not being bought, look at how many houses sit with no one living in them just on my block there is 52 homes, only 34 have some one in them the rest sit there either for rent or sale or both. i am sure it is the same every where.


                  Consumption was further restricted by chronic depression and poor harvests in the agricultural sector in the late 1920s. It was the dustbowl era in the American Midwest. Farmers had to curtail consumption.

                  aren't we heading full speed into another drought? i just saw there is a town in tenn there has to have water trcked in because they have NONE!

                  The result of these developments was that while America was producing manufactured goods at full speed, consumer purchasing power was rapidly declining. For a time in the late 1920s installment credit bridged the gap, but by 1929 this had been exhausted and sales began to fall off. Declining sales and growing business inventories helped trigger a rapid loss of confidence that sparked a crash on Wall Street.






                  again look at just the houseing market from the last 5 years to now and look at the value of our dollar.

                  i have said it before and i'll say it again,
                  folks this is just the begining, start saving now because tomarrow it may be to late
                  9/11/01, never forget.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Could We Slip Into Recession

                    OSC, I think you're right all the signs are there and yet the government says millions of new jobs last month. I'd like to know where the hell these new jobs are and what they're paying? Last week we had three new bucket trucks with new chippers on our block. They were from the biggest tree service company in our area and I approached them to ask a question. I've spoken to some of these guys over the years and they are big American men who live in the area. Well all six of the guys in this crew were south american and only one spoke a little english. I'm sure they could do the work, but I'll bet most of their money is being sent back home to be spent in another country. What happened to the American men who were working those trucks? Don't tell me they suddenly got "Lazy"! So these companies keep replacing working Americans who are trying to pay their mortgage and support their family with lower paid foreigners, maybe we will become a third world country if this keeps up? No new cars for this guy, I buy just about everything used and fix it up a bit let them choke on all them high priced cars, trucks and SUV's.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Could We Slip Into Recession

                      I work friday and sat night 11pm-7am as a security guard...2nd job...a lot of retired folks end up doing the security guard thing and I find it sad to see 80+ yr olds haveing to work full time to cover cost of medication and such....some of these guys are retired from big companies..pension and such...but just not enough.... down here the insurance companies still clamining they lost sooooo much $$ a few years ago to the hurracanes that they jacked home owners insurance up to the ozon layer...got some 60 or 70 yr old lady widow or what ever...has a few years left on the morgage...insurance is part of payments....sooo monthly payments go from manageable to OMG and they cant keep up...that to me is the sad part...me I racked up the bills...soo paying the piper...butits just wrong for someone to have to spend the last years of their life working full time.

                      Dont know about your area...but I hit the Palm Bay office of code enforcement the other day to pull a permit....3 people working and no line what so ever.....same with supply houses....use to be u waited in line...now its walk up and order no waiting...thats freaky.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Could We Slip Into Recession

                        Well my view is watchout for whats coming.I did one of my very rare mall trips today.I needed fuel in the truck so stopped at the cheap fuel place the line was so long I went to another station and had price shock..3.69 a gal for diesel.Then I went on to the mall the lots weren't very full except near the grocery stores.Went in Sears 1st and didnt see anyone at the registers buying,next swung thru Ross dress for less store..usually theres long lines at the registers in that store..not today.Next stop was the cultery store as I wanted a fine stone and diamond stick..I was its only customer but then its never very busy.Next stop was the seasonal junk luggage store in the mall..I was in there about 15 minutes looking and there was only 1 other looker in that time.Last stop was at bed and bath as thats why I went for a couple sale items..zero waiting for either register and few in the store.Last stop was at Safeway on the way home..very busy but totally no one with big full carts and thats rare for that store here.
                        Yesterday several Asian countries bought dollars to keep the dollar from free falling against their currencies..Even the Philippines bought dollars and that country is very poor and far in debt..Reason why they did that? Because they want trade with the USA to continue with them.I have reasons to mention the Philippines as I'm there often and have a wife and son there.My wife and many many others there are screaming about the falling dollar as many there depend on dollars sent to them.Two years ago the exchange rate was 56p=$1 now its 43p=$1.The dollar is sliding fast which is good for our USA exports..problem is tho we import a whole lot more then we export.
                        Where all this will stop is anyones guess but with all energy products costing more with seemingly no end to that my guess is for bad things ahead for everywhere.I always remember the old saying..The USA sneezes the world catches a cold.The USA catches a cold the world gets the flu.
                        Personally for the last year I've been busting up my investments into smaller more wide spread accounts and (sorry) more aimed at things in other countries except I refuse to invest in anything in SA.
                        As bad as we think it is here believe me its worse in 3rd world countries in general.I'd except China in that as they are booming at the expense of the rest of the world.The next to be hurt badly is the EU theres a bunch of cheap labor just over the borders there too just waiting on the next factory to be built for the cheap labor.The only plus side to this to me is that China is polluting itself into oblivion so eventually they will need food which the USA still mass produces,plus that will lower their working population.Crude of me to think that way yes but its happening.
                        To me one of the few things left to save the dollar is to bring back manufacturing to the states while its still possible but the international corps like that bottom line cheap labor for the profit.
                        Recession?I think we are actually barely into 1 but that its very likely it could turn very bad very fast.We won the cold wars with Russia and China but are very fast loosing the now economic war with both.
                        I feel very badly for the children here and in most countries as I strongly feel they will have to have a lower standard of living then their parents enjoyed.I'm 53 my son is 19 months..so I think a bit different now.
                        Just my thoughts Sam

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Could We Slip Into Recession

                          Sam ,that was a good post you covered a lot. When we had manufacturing in the country at least we had the EPA and other governmental agencies keeping some kind of watch on the pollution, in these other countries they are killing themselves. I was on another blog and a guy there blamed the fores in So. Cal on global warming! People decided to build up that area and refused to clear brush and impliment fire breaks. Children, pets and livestock have no say in where they live and I think the adults should have protected them better. The idiot tree huggers ended up doing more damage by their efforts because had dead brush been removed and fire breaks properly worked out this entire tragedy might have been avoided. Getting back to our economy, I think there will be a breaking point involving gasoline, diesel and heating furel resulting from the price of a barrel of oil. When that point is reached our economy will shut down. You think businesses are slow now? What will happen when the majority of Americans reach the point of realizing it's either drive, heat my house or buy "non essentials"?

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                          • #14
                            Re: Could We Slip Into Recession

                            In todays' world where we see teenagers become millionaires on their own by thinking out of the box it seems petty to be so down on the economy. For those who are waiting for something to happen your future may in fact be doomed. For those willing to make something happen you have a much better chance of being successful.

                            Mark
                            "Somewhere a Village is Missing Twelve Idiots!" - Casey Anthony

                            I never lost a cent on the jobs I didn't get!

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Could We Slip Into Recession

                              This is an interesting topic...and one that affects us all, no doubt. At 32 years old, I often wonder how bad things will be when I reach retirement age. I fear that Social Security will be gone by then and the stock investments I have now will long be depleted. It seems to me like there are a lot of corporate execs. and CEO's who make these ridiculous salaries which of course drives the cost of products and production waaaay up to offset the cost of their lifestyles. I mean, I am all for people being successful and living comfortably, but there has to come a point in time where a line is drawn. It's the same thing with our government. Look at the salaries of your local and Federal officials as well as your Congressional officials. I find it ironic that they accomplish less and less but yet always seem to vote themselves a raise to make more and more money...that's OUR tax dollars folks. Seems to me, if history truly does repeat itself, we are due for another Boston Tea Party. What happened to this country? We used to all stand together for the common good of the people. Now, it seems like it's every man for himself. No real sense of true Patriotism. The cost of a gallon of gas is ridiculous...average $3 or so...but as long as people keep buying it, then it will just continue to go up. What I mean by that is that if we as a people were to band together and just say, "ya know what, I'm just gonna do without gas this week NO MATTER what it takes" then I think we would get big brothers attention. That applies to anything...supplies, groceries etc. The problem is, we won't do without...or for some people, can't do without. We get weak and give in halfway through. I have three family members who are in Iraq right now. And while I support our troops, I cannot support a war based on the lies our president is feeding us. Honestly, do you feel ANY safer now than you did before 911? We went to war with Germany to prevent Hitler from his psychotic world domination dillusions...and he was a real threat...he was eventually planning to invade he U.S. wether you think so or not...we had no choice. But this war is politically and financially motivated...wether you believe it or not. And now our economy is feeling the crunch. I'm sorry if I have offended anyone by what I have said, it wasn't my intention. I agree with locking down our borders and rounding up anyone who is here illegally...THEY ARE breaking the law. The problem is that there are too many people out there who would say that is cruel and not fair to these people. Look, I have no problems with people coming into this country, just do it legally. Otherwise, you will have an entire nation living among us enjoying all of our liberties and financial assistance without having to pay into it...Oh wait, thats already happening. At the end of the day, at the bottom of the pile, who do you think is footing the bill for all of this? Yep, you and me. Insurance companies? Don't get me started. Lets see, for 30 years my parents paid their premium on their house without ever missing a single payment. Then, we have a hurricane and a tree falls on part of their house. So, they expect their insurance company to do their job...right? HA! They say that the wind didn't blow the tree over, but rather the constant rain soaked the roots and the tree fell due to water which is NOT covered under thier policy. Consumer confidence is rock bottom for a reason folks. These insurance companies have not lost a dime no matter what they whine to the media....you know it and I know it. So, why is it everyday that you and I get up and trudge along like lambs to a slaughter? We are Americans...because we can. WE have the freedom to ignore any and all of this. We have the freedom to look the other way from what we know is right. We have the freedom to not do anything about what is going on in our country. I wonder if that freedom will eventually imprison us....

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