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  • #16
    Re: kinda political...too soon?

    there are so many facets to this,


    you had speculators,

    you have supply and demand,

    you have inflation balloons, (housing and fuels, and there may be others in there as well.),

    you have conversation and use,

    you have vehicle choice,

    you have goveremnt regulations, (drilling, ethanol, road tax, EPA and other).

    you have foreign countries and there growth, and bust, China, India.

    they all had parts to play in the current fuel prices,

    and you have the greed and fear cycles of the economics systems we use,


    the simple of it was things were expanding, and the supply did not as fast as the demand expanded, so price started up, china and the Olympics, more demand, less supply, speculators, moneys started to dry up, do to fuels and housing, (note: all commodities were effected by the same thing, You can go back and find threads and stories on food and steel, lumber and other.
    as money dried up, (consumers, people stop ed buying products, to make there transportation, going, China lost orders, housing interest kicked in about the same time, people were stressed by increasing costs, less orders, factories close, less demand, soon less demand on oil as less is being used, the speculators run, prices drop, (speculators can not make money on steady prices), the same in the housing market, (most of the speculators were home owners, going to get rich on there "investment" as housing was going up 10% or more a year, say get a no interest loan for 5 years, I sell for big profits, in 4 years, (surprise, the balloon busted) no sale,

    now one is on the down spiral of the fear side of the economy, (many of the first lay offs were not necessary, they were in anticipation of worst times to come,
    as peoples get lay ed off, less funds to spend, less demand,

    Is fuel worth, $1.50 $4.00 or some where in the middle, the fuel was not probably not worth $4 or is it worth $1.50

    but as the old wells are shut down and the marginal wells are shut down and less productive fields are abandoned, and exploration is put on hold, the supply will start to day up and the price will raise in time, depending on how much supply drops off, and if the speculators jump into it again, who knows how high it will got back up,

    when you dealing with commodities the price will not reflect the proper value of the item many times, take grains they can fluctuate many dollars a ,bushel, or oils, lumber,


    can the government's control the prices, yes they can they can subsidies the products or tax or impose tariffs, or created policies that can limit the use or supplies or production of products. and all has been done in the areas of fuels,

    does the current price reflect the proper value of fuels, probably not, what should be the proper price. I guess it depends on who you ask, if your buying or selling,

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~`

    Is peak oil the original question, there may be or has been a peak of production, (or has half of the oil been found)

    I am sure the easy oil has been discovered and harvested, is there oil left yes, but it is harder and more expensive to get, take oil shale, the western states are full of the stuff, but can one extract it economically and with minimal damage to the environment, (the simple not as of yet). yes there are billions of barrels of it jsut not easily retrievable, the new oils are much deeper and more complex to retrieve, thus one need a higher price to make them worth going after,

    if your wanting "renewable energies" to compete with "fossil fuels" more than likely the price of fossil fuels will need to be greater for a clean wash between the energies,

    but the simple is the worlds supply of oil is currently greater than the demand for it, (when one is dealing with a commodity) and there is great abundance, and if there is a little profit, the only way a small producer can make money is to sell more of it,
    (in all reality making the problem greater), the ideal for the producer is to jsut produce jsut enough for that there is a light shortage of the actual demand of the product, that way the price stays high, and for years the OPEC nations have done that.
    if you meet demand your price will not increases, if you want increases you must have a little less than ever one wants. but as long as the supply meets the demand, no one will pay more for it,as there is all ready enough on the market to meat your needs.

    the world is a HURT, economically, and I think things will get worst before it gets better. when will fuel go back up first your going to have to ride the coaster to the bottom and wait for the demand to raise or the supply get cut, then the price will raise,

    again the peak in peak oil is only applicable if you needs are surpassing the production, you can be on the down side of the peak, but if that is more than enough supply, then the price will not necessarily be high,

    example: take buggy whips, at one time the use of horses was at a all time high, and it was (for example only so much production of buggy whips), as along as there was a shortage, the price of a whip when up so one could obtain one if needed, but some guy called Ford, came on the scene, and started to make a new product, and less whips were needed, even tho there was still a need for them, but as time went on the price ow whips fell to nearly the cost of production and in some shops possibly below production, but there was peak of buggy whips production, and even tho they may have been on the down side of the production of whips, the price keep dropping as the demand for them was dropping as well.
    (this is where one is with oil currently, will the demand pick up to past it ability to be extracted, probably in time it will, but as long as the demand for the product is with in the range of the production the price will remain reasonable, even if the over all supply is on its down side.)

    are we at peak oil (I do not know, some say yes), I can not hardly think we can keep sucking it out of the ground at the rate that has been going on, and increasing (or for an eminence time we were) with out some day running out or at least not keeping up with demand.
    Last edited by BHD; 01-25-2009, 03:49 PM.
    Push sticks/blocks Save Fingers
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    "The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good."
    attributed to Samuel Johnson
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    PUBLIC NOTICE: Due to recent budget cuts, the rising cost of electricity, gas, and oil...plus the current state of the economy............the light at the end of the tunnel, has been turned off.

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    • #17
      Re: Renamed - The cost of fuel today

      First I don't "blame Bush". I hope I have never said anything that makes me seem that simple minded, though i am sure I have. My point in saying it was a money grab before he left office is that the government reaction to it was much more likely to be favorable in that political climate. What was the reaction? Being told we have to drill more and pushing through political measures that are very profitable to big oil. We were being told it was the only way we would ever get out of the "crisis" that turned out to be yet again BS inflation. Meanwhile, speculators or not, China or not, OPEC or not, domestic oil companies collected record profits while the economy was delivered a tremendous blow.

      I understand speculation had a lot to do with it. China and India had a lot to do with it. No matter how you cut it, and however it started or was sustained, the pump price inflation was used for political and corporate ends. And any of us who bought the story that we had to drill our way out should reflect on who was selling them that story.

      I'm not going to blame Bush, in fact I'm not blaming the oil companies or even the greedy speculators. I blame myself and any of us who continue to take this crap or politicize it to fit our tastes. If we are going to continue to be sheep--either by believing AL Gore is our savior or the cause of everything just as an example--we deserve whatever they give us. I really wish we could stop being useful fools. Either that or I wish I was greedy enough to take advantage of it and get rich.

      Eli
      A good carpenter makes few mistakes, a great carpenter can fix his own.

      Comment


      • #18
        Re: kinda political...too soon?

        Originally posted by saysflushable View Post
        I guess the people that say we need to conserve were wrong or we as Americans use to much of the world resorces were wrong also. I was suprised to find out it was speculators, but I'm glad to find out we aren't running out of oil and the American life style didn't cause the huge run up in prices. Finally something the world can't blame on Americans. Just remember oil is a world wide traded commodity It wasn't just American traders driving the price up through speculation.
        I guess I should have left Bush out of the original post, because it's a whole other ball of wax. I don't care who is to blame in this particular discussion. My point is that whatever the reason we were being told we had to drill to get out of it. Obviously not the case. We were told we would never see $2.00 gas again. Wrong. I don't blame anyone for believing it--I believe plausible things I hear and read about all the time. I just want to point out that as hard as that was being pushed down our throats there was an agenda behind it! Let's all take the time now to examine what that may have been so when they try to pull it off again we will be wiser and not buy it. If you think it was really just smart people who had the best interests of the country at heart and they happened to be wrong--hey, just remember that they seem to be wrong a lot about a lot of important things. If it was more insidious than that then we had better start holding them accountable so they stop deceiving us with our own permission.

        Eli
        A good carpenter makes few mistakes, a great carpenter can fix his own.

        Comment


        • #19
          Re: Renamed - The cost of fuel today

          Originally posted by woodenstickers View Post
          Meanwhile, speculators or not, China or not, OPEC or not, domestic oil companies collected record profits while the economy was delivered a tremendous blow.

          Eli
          Keep in mind those record profits do not come solely from fuel sales. Look around you, what do you see? Oil!!! Think about the fact that every piece of plastic you see, everyone of them, from the plastic sandwich bags to the plastic soda bottles contain petroleum. How about vinyl siding on a house? Or vinyl flooring in your kitchen or bath? How about an asphalt road, or asphalt shingles on your roof? Does your car have tires on it, or belts on the engine? Every bit of it uses petroleum, in the product itself and the manufacturing and deivery of it as well.

          Record profits come from much more than high fuel prices. record profits come from the fact that we can't hardly find anything these days that doesn't use petroleum in it.

          Jeff

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          • #20
            Re: Renamed - The cost of fuel today

            Originally posted by piette View Post
            Keep in mind those record profits do not come solely from fuel sales. Look around you, what do you see? Oil!!! Think about the fact that every piece of plastic you see, everyone of them, from the plastic sandwich bags to the plastic soda bottles contain petroleum. How about vinyl siding on a house? Or vinyl flooring in your kitchen or bath? How about an asphalt road, or asphalt shingles on your roof? Does your car have tires on it, or belts on the engine? Every bit of it uses petroleum, in the product itself and the manufacturing and deivery of it as well.

            Record profits come from much more than high fuel prices. record profits come from the fact that we can't hardly find anything these days that doesn't use petroleum in it.

            Jeff
            Believe me, I know. The cost of oil drives up the cost of everything. I sell beds now and the cost of foam, a big ingredient, went up being a petroleum product. Not instantly though. In fact the consumer has yet to feel it. But I am really mostly concerned with fuel prices at the pump in the narrow scope of this discussion. I want to find out how people feel about the stories we were told when the fuel costs had us all upset and ready to be manipulated. Or was it all on the up and up?


            Eli
            Last edited by woodenstickers; 01-25-2009, 10:49 PM.
            A good carpenter makes few mistakes, a great carpenter can fix his own.

            Comment


            • #21
              Re: Renamed - The cost of fuel today

              Originally posted by woodenstickers View Post

              Meanwhile, speculators or not, China or not, OPEC or not, domestic oil companies collected record profits while the economy was delivered a tremendous blow.

              Eli
              As pointed out earlier in the thread the oil companies work off of a percentage profit. The market not the oil companies control the cost of a barrel of oil. Because they work off of a percentage, when we saw record prices for oil they saw record profits based on the same percentage they had before. It was pointed out they work on a 5% profit margin. I had heard less but lets assume it's 5%. I'm guessing your mattress store does not work on a 5% profit as most mattress stores regularly have 50% off sales. You can't have a 50% off sale unless your regular prices are inflated to begin with. What do you imagine your boss would do if tomorrow the government told him he had to limit his profit to 3% because 5% is too high?

              Mark
              "Somewhere a Village is Missing Twelve Idiots!" - Casey Anthony

              I never lost a cent on the jobs I didn't get!

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              • #22
                Re: Renamed - The cost of fuel today

                Originally posted by ToUtahNow View Post
                As pointed out earlier in the thread the oil companies work off of a percentage profit. The market not the oil companies control the cost of a barrel of oil. Because they work off of a percentage, when we saw record prices for oil they saw record profits based on the same percentage they had before. It was pointed out they work on a 5% profit margin. I had heard less but lets assume it's 5%. I'm guessing your mattress store does not work on a 5% profit as most mattress stores regularly have 50% off sales. You can't have a 50% off sale unless your regular prices are inflated to begin with. What do you imagine your boss would do if tomorrow the government told him he had to limit his profit to 3% because 5% is too high?

                Mark
                If the entire economy and health of the nation depended on mattresses you may have a point. But there would also have to be mattress lobbies and a vested interest in legislation and land use and well.....to reign it in again and try to use your analogy, if the government was given millions and millions of dollars by my boss and then told the population that the only way to make sure my boss doesn't double the price of a necessary commodity like mattresses is to pass laws that will give him even more mattresses to sell us with no promise that he won't double it anyway and that turns out to be false....

                I'm not pushing socialism or even regulation here, Mark. I'm saying we were duped. Good for the oil companies, they should take every advantage. It's the government and the people who buy their manipulation on the oil companies behalf that irk me.

                Eli
                A good carpenter makes few mistakes, a great carpenter can fix his own.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Re: Renamed - The cost of fuel today

                  There were two factors, first imports, and that has not been rectified, buying from people who are funding others to attack us,

                  That was a part of oil independence, and drilling on our own soils,

                  The other part, was to up the supply for the US. and if the economy would not have taken a down turn increasing the supply was the only way to drive down the price of oil.

                  yes a recession/depression will do a similar function to reduce the demand, and I think that most of us were not counting on this, I do think it blind sided the government as well, or at least those in leadership.

                  and since the down turn was not even on the horizon by the world and there leaders including big business, and big oil. there was not even a thought of a down turn, (yes it took the former administration and congress by surprise, but apparently other world leaders as well including China, Europe, and other Asia countries.

                  My son went to work for a welding company building oil drilling rigs, this fall, they had 4 rigs to build (huge state of the art rigs), they had all ready built 3 rigs, they were welding and fabricating up sub assemblies, after he had worked for three weeks the oil company come in and said were not going to build the last unit, and two weeks later, they came back and said finish what your working on and that is it for now, every thing else is put on hold indefinitely, and he was out of a job. they had no idea this was coming.

                  and if we want to held hostage in the future by Arab oil then jsut keep doing as we are doing, as were importing more now than we were in the 1970's,

                  when Bush went to the Saudis to attempt to talk them in to upping production of oil, and they declined, the price sky rocketed,

                  So if you need more supply and you have reserves and not taping them. as said it takes close to 10 years to get a field producing, It is not as simple as turning on and off a faucet.

                  the problems are still there, about the only thing that has changed is the price, do to the drop in demand, but the supply line is still not as secure as we would like,

                  Even if we would have drilled,
                  If the demand would have remained the price would not have probably dropped much, if any but the supply would have been secured or more secure.

                  many said this war was as much about oil as terror, (I do not know) but if this has been about oil and oil only, then when you add the cost of the war to the price of a gallon of gasoline, then the true cost of fuel is much greater than the $2 or $4 dollars a gallon were paying at the pump, and how does one put the cost of a life or a maimed solder to the cost. I know some of it was to secure and stabilize the middle east region,

                  If we were not dependant on the oil over there, there is a good chance we would not be involved in securing the "peace". look at the saving it would have been,

                  and since we have concentrated on Iraq rather than Afghanistan, it looks like securing a steady supply of oil is a large part of the equation.

                  (is oil the energy of the future, I do not know, but currently it is and it will take 10 to 20 years possibly 30 years, to get to the point where "other" energies will be the bulk of the energy produced. right now there are speculators and a few companies trying to least blocks of land for wind farms in our area, there are not any transmission lines and the ones planed are 10 years off at the quickest, so how far off are the wind farms, a good 10 years more than likely I doubt if any one is going to put a few million dollar turbine up with no way to export the power out of the area, (or a farm of 100 of them jsut to wait for a line to be built),

                  the infrastructure of the country is not able to support the "new renewable energies dreamed of".

                  so the simple is OIL is the energy of the next 10 to 30 years, even if renewables are pushed at warp speed,

                  and for each of us, it will cost you and I as well, as your cars and trucks will have to change in the process, and they cost more than the gasoline models, and on a seldom used truck how fast will you replace it, (there was a 1960 pumper pictured not that long ago on this board), and it would do everything that a new pumper would have done),

                  If we want do not want to be held hostage to foreign oil in the future, then we need to drill and develop renewables, IMO, we need to secure our own supplies of energies.
                  Push sticks/blocks Save Fingers
                  ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
                  "The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good."
                  attributed to Samuel Johnson
                  ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
                  PUBLIC NOTICE: Due to recent budget cuts, the rising cost of electricity, gas, and oil...plus the current state of the economy............the light at the end of the tunnel, has been turned off.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Re: Renamed - The cost of fuel today

                    Originally posted by ToUtahNow View Post
                    As pointed out earlier in the thread the oil companies work off of a percentage profit. The market not the oil companies control the cost of a barrel of oil. Because they work off of a percentage, when we saw record prices for oil they saw record profits based on the same percentage they had before. It was pointed out they work on a 5% profit margin. I had heard less but lets assume it's 5%. I'm guessing your mattress store does not work on a 5% profit as most mattress stores regularly have 50% off sales. You can't have a 50% off sale unless your regular prices are inflated to begin with. What do you imagine your boss would do if tomorrow the government told him he had to limit his profit to 3% because 5% is too high?

                    Mark
                    further on this analogy...when the cost of oil per barrel goes up the fuel price rises basically instantly and the company makes more money. When the cost of materials in mattresses goes up ie steel, petroleum products like foams and the fuel it takes to produce, transport, heat the buildings, run the electricity goes up my boss doesn't make more profit, he makes less.
                    A good carpenter makes few mistakes, a great carpenter can fix his own.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Re: kinda political...too soon?

                      Originally posted by Frankiarmz View Post
                      Relax J.C., I was just being silly. I will say seriously that suggesting to raise the price of gasoline in order to free up the roads or stop people from joy riding is not something well thought out. There are plenty of folks who can barely afford $2.00 a gallon for gas and they are not using their cars for pleasure. A lot of folks need to drive in order to get their kids to school, themselves or loved ones to the doctor or a hospital for treatment and a whole host of other very necessary places that have nothing to do with work. I agree there are people who drive and accomplish nothing but crowding the roads and wasting fuel, but you can't weed them out without hurting those who do need to drive. You must know by now that I have the utmost respect for tradesmen. Just remember not everyone who worked hard is pulling in big bucks.

                      Why don't you start writing jokes for comedy central


                      These same people,


                      they pay $4 for a bag of potato chips

                      $1.39 for a candy bar

                      $1.89 for a powerbar *for the health nuts out there*


                      And to top it off? These "poor" people that can't afford to drive to the doctors?


                      They are the pieces of **** that sit there blowing those desperate dollars that they have to have for gas playing lottery scratch offs, just waiting to hit the "big" one.


                      I for one don't hide the reality of what I see in shopping carts, hands that walk out of every grocery and convenient stores. Don't even get me started on those who smoke, justifying their now $30/week habit because "Times are tough, I'm gonna smoke my way out of it"

                      Usually, and most the times people are struggling based on fuel alone? Made decisions in life to not educate, further themselves and took on that choice early on. That's not my effing problem so get off the ****ing road because I got money to make, you're slowing me down.

                      "Oh, my heart is heavy" Heard that line of crap before? That's what agenda follows when the price of gas goes up 4 cents and a spendthrift has to drive 8 miles to get that 4 cent differential back.


                      Talked to gear junkie one evening in a parking lot at a convenient store.....about 23 adult males bought beer, ALL OF THEM BOUGHT BEER, maybe some nachos. All ages.

                      Times can't be that tough because of gas, beer didn't stop selling.


                      I certainly don't buy the BS. I ran 3 trucks last year in the thick of it, I bet I paid a grand, maybe $1500 more for fuel. Whoop-de-la-de-dah. So I ate one less fun meal a day.

                      Starts with education and it starts with not being a bottom dweller in this world.


                      FUEL PRICES CREATED DISCIPLINE FOR THE UNEDUCATED. FUEL PRICES ARE TALKING POLITICAL POINTS, THAT'S IT.
                      Last edited by DUNBAR PLUMBING; 01-25-2009, 11:52 PM.
                      Northern Kentucky Plumbers Twitter Feed | Plumbing Videos

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                      • #26
                        Re: Renamed - The cost of fuel today

                        If there is one thing that you can remember I said is that America is a neverending whore for Capitalisms dollar over ANY patriotism now.

                        They did not build all of those WalMarts because the majority of Americans were willing to pay the 30%+ that the local traditional store was charging. They built them because it was cheaper to the consumer and people do not care where the products come from or the longterm consequences.

                        Same thing with gas/oil vs. alternative energy. As long as gas/oil prices are at the current % of the average income-people do not care about alternative ways or longterm consequences on the whole. They really don't care where the oil comes from either.

                        Let $50.00/barrel come from Iraq or $150.00/barrel come from Texas and see what people will buy.

                        J.C.
                        Last edited by BobsPlumbing; 01-25-2009, 11:51 PM.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Re: Renamed - The cost of fuel today

                          Originally posted by BHD View Post

                          If we want do not want to be held hostage to foreign oil in the future, then we need to drill and develop renewables, IMO, we need to secure our own supplies of energies.
                          You may be right about this. When it gets mixed with people making fortunes and political careers based on the information we are led to believe, it gets sticky. Once again, my main point is that the people who were so sure about so many things a few months ago were not correct, either by mistake or by design. I also think we need to be more careful about what we let our politicians sell to us, where their interests lie, and if they are under the control of those who, as they're right to, want to profit off of us, our fear and our needs. To me this is a security concern too as our economy can be severely damaged by it.

                          Eli
                          A good carpenter makes few mistakes, a great carpenter can fix his own.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Re: Renamed - The cost of fuel today

                            While everyone post great points on the cost of fuel. It all boils down to one simple word GREED.

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                            • #29
                              Re: kinda political...too soon?

                              Originally posted by DUNBAR View Post
                              Why don't you start writing jokes for comedy central


                              These same people,


                              they pay $4 for a bag of potato chips

                              $1.39 for a candy bar

                              $1.89 for a powerbar *for the health nuts out there*


                              And to top it off? These "poor" people that can't afford to drive to the doctors?


                              They are the pieces of **** that sit there blowing those desperate dollars that they have to have for gas playing lottery scratch offs, just waiting to hit the "big" one.


                              I for one don't hide the reality of what I see in shopping carts, hands that walk out of every grocery and convenient stores. Don't even get me started on those who smoke, justifying their now $30/week habit because "Times are tough, I'm gonna smoke my way out of it"

                              Usually, and most the times people are struggling based on fuel alone? Made decisions in life to not educate, further themselves and took on that choice early on. That's not my effing problem so get off the ****ing road because I got money to make, you're slowing me down.

                              "Oh, my heart is heavy" Heard that line of crap before? That's what agenda follows when the price of gas goes up 4 cents and a spendthrift has to drive 8 miles to get that 4 cent differential back.


                              Talked to gear junkie one evening in a parking lot at a convenient store.....about 23 adult males bought beer, ALL OF THEM BOUGHT BEER, maybe some nachos. All ages.

                              Times can't be that tough because of gas, beer didn't stop selling.


                              I certainly don't buy the BS. I ran 3 trucks last year in the thick of it, I bet I paid a grand, maybe $1500 more for fuel. Whoop-de-la-de-dah. So I ate one less fun meal a day.

                              Starts with education and it starts with not being a bottom dweller in this world.


                              FUEL PRICES CREATED DISCIPLINE FOR THE UNEDUCATED. FUEL PRICES ARE TALKING POLITICAL POINTS, THAT'S IT.
                              Dunbar, I was making a point of saying some rude and stupid things in response to the rude and stupid things you said and are saying again in the above post. My wife and millions of other folks had to and have to go for chemo treatments and other out patient procedures and they need to drive. Not everyone has the money to pay $6 for a gallon of gas and they should not have to stop driving to please you. My wife is college educated and neither she nor I am a "bottom dweller". You should understand that being part of a free society "America" there are all sorts of jobs that must be done and appropriate salaries as compensation. Be thankful for your God given health and detemination to follow a lucrative career, but be mindful and respectful of others who live in "our" society. Now if you really want to call me a piece of s..t for working thirty years I can't stop you, the Internet allows some people to be rude and insulting. I think if you and I were face to face and you really knew me you would have a different opinion. I do agree that there are plenty of folks who abuse the almighty dollar and among them are people who never worked, or who are scamming the system. How do we stop the waste without hurting the honest folks who do not have your income? If you don't care or want to stick to your previous opinions that it is a matter of laziness, I do not agree with you.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Re: Renamed - The cost of fuel today

                                Originally posted by woodenstickers View Post
                                Anyway. A lot was said about oil at the peak of the price that I would like to bring up again now that the smoke has cleared a bit. I guess the idea that we would never see $2.00 gas again was wrong. I guess the idea that we had to drill in order to see lower prices was wrong. I guess the idea that it was all because environmentalists made it impossible for the free market to work is wrong.
                                I think oil prices will likely increase. At this point, if you are willing to take delivery of oil and hold it for a few months; you can make money, because future contracts for months ahead are more than the prices now. Last year when we had lots of demand, to reduce prices we needed more supply. Now that demand has dropped off we have excess supply. When the global economy expands again, if we have no alternatives to foreign oil; the price will go back up.

                                Also, I think that there is a lag between prices and the supply; which will make things go back up. There are going to be lots of projects out there that don't make sense at $35/bbl, because they need something like $50 to make any money. Once those go offline, the supply vs. demand will decrease. I'm not sure that I buy OPEC can completely control the market, but maybe they'll have enough discipline to make the price go up. I don't know.

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