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Economic recovery...

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  • Economic recovery...

    Ok.. we havent actually discussed one of the survey questions in probably 20 surveys. So lets start it up again. Back up your answer to this weeks survey. If you think our economy is recovering... Why? If you think we're not recovering back that up...


  • #2
    You have to define what you mean by recovery or recovering.

    In the first instance, by such indicators as the Dow, the "economy" is a truly non-static thing; you can think of it like a rubber ball at the end of a rubber band; it will respond in general to external influences, but in the process it will bounce back and forth for essentially internal reasons. So in the first instance, you have to mean to refer to longer-term, rather than instantaneous changes.

    Next, you have to decide whether recovery means to get entirely back to the position it was in before whatever time or event marks the beginning of the event against which you are measuring recovery. In the 2000-01 period, our "economy" was artificially inflated by stock prices asked and given for share of stock of corporations that had never made a dollar of profit (and had little prospects of doing so). Now that that bit of alchemy has been recognized for what it is (often, unfortunately, the hard way), it is unlikely that the "economy" will -- or should -- "recover" the same delusional state it formerly had.

    I would define recovery in terms of two phenomena. First, after the explosion, a lot of people are shaking the dust off and finding that, while there was a lot of noise and a bit of smoke, they weren't killed, or even hurt too much. That is it say, "Jeekers, it wasn't all that bad." At that point, people start coming out of their bunkers and returning to some semblance of normal. Second, there exists in this country a huge reservoir of wealth that needs to be invested. As people recover from the inflated expectations of the dot-com era, they are getting more realistic about investments, but they are investing. In the process, our national wealth will tend to be invested in more traditional profit-making endeavors, and people will stop thinking of their work effort in terms of some kind of dot-com lottery. That is my definition of recovery, and I believe it to be happening, albeit slowly.

    Jeekers, who asked for a tome?